Post by TheShadow on Apr 17, 2006 17:25:04 GMT -5
www.usatoday.com/
By Paul Kuharsky, The Tennessean
For the NFL teams that struggled the most in the fall, spring is supposed to be filled with promise.
A top three pick in the draft can cure a lot of ills, reset a team's course, have an impact for a dozen years or more.
But drafting is an inexact science, as NFL personnel executives constantly remind the media and fans.
Looking back 20 years — and not yet passing subjective judgment on players who've been in the league less than four seasons — the top three picks have included at least one certifiable bust in 15 out of 17 drafts since 1986.
Some players had hard luck with injuries (like Cincinnati Bengals running back Ki-Jana Carter) while others appeared to have been products of their college systems (like Miami running back Alonzo Highsmith with the Houston Oilers) or managed to get themselves into trouble (like Oakland Raiders defensive tackle Darrell Russell).
Others had work ethic questions.
Former Dallas Cowboys personnel executive Gil Brandt said he will always remember that Rick Mirer, the Notre Dame quarterback who proved to be a bust as the second pick in 1993, didn't want to serve as a holder at a college all-star game for fear of hurting his hand.
Then there have been more straightforwardly bad picks:
The Atlanta Falcons took Auburn linebacker Aundray Bruce first overall in 1988 and Nebraska defensive back Bruce Pickens third in 1991. The Washington Redskins tabbed Tennessee quarterback Heath Shuler third in 1994. The San Diego Chargers grabbed Washington State quarterback Ryan Leaf second in 1998.
"I probably surprise you with how much I know about those guys just off the top of my head," said Brandt, now an analyst with NFL.com. "And I think teams know a hell of a lot more, yet we make mistakes. I don't know what the answer is.
"One of the things that comes into the equation is, after they get money, how hard are they going to work to continue to get better? That's one of the key questions."
It's fair to expect a top-three pick to be a permanent fixture in the lineup and the league, anchoring a position and garnering Pro Bowl invitations.
Tennessee Titans General Manager Floyd Reese said while he and his scouts look to avoid landmines, sometimes there is simply no way to predict how a player will pan out.
"When Tony Mandarich was drafted, I don't care what personnel people tell you, 99.9% of the GMs in the league would have drafted him at exactly the same spot," Reese said. "He was that impressive coming out. History will tell you what happened. But for people to say they saw it coming, that's a lie. He was an awesome football player."
Reese also said he believes the bust label gets passed out too often and too easily.
"If he doesn't come in and be rookie of the year and if he's not a 10-time Pro Bowler on the way to the Hall of Fame, it's a bust. Because you're drafting in a position where that guy is supposed to be that good. Now, does that happen? Not very often. It's very, very difficult to live up to the expectations," Reese said.
"If you draft a guard at the third spot and there is a guard drafted at the 23rd spot that is rookie of the year, all the sudden your guard is a bust even though he may be a pretty good player and you're thrilled with him."