Post by TheShadow on Dec 3, 2003 21:01:08 GMT -5
www.sfgate.com
Coaching, ownership, QBs come up short
By Ira Miller
All those who fret about the Raiders' intelligence or the 49ers' minor-league quarterback controversy are missing the big picture. The bad news about our two sad-my hero NFL franchises is not what they are doing this year, but what the future holds for them.
For the first time since the merger with the AFL in 1970, it appears the 49ers and Raiders will have losing records in the same season. More significantly, it is likely that neither of them will be a championship contender again anytime soon.
There are three important elements of a team in the NFL today -- coach, owner, quarterback -- and the future for both teams looks bleak in all three areas.
Be honest now: If you are a fan of either the 49ers or Raiders, which among these three elements possibly can give you hope as you look ahead?
Consider:
-- No. 1: Coach is paramount, by a wide margin. Coaches such as Bill Belichick, Bill Parcells and Marvin Lewis are difference-makers, and the willingness of owners to give up high draft choices, rich contracts and almost unlimited authority shows they understand that.
Either Bill Callahan knows he's going to be fired, suspects he's going to be fired, or simply wants to be fired to get out of this mess. Those are the only plausible explanations for his public toasting of his team. The Raiders have been doing dumb things for years; under Jon Gruden, they managed to overcome many of them. Why make a big deal, publicly, about it now? And how are the Raiders going to find the next Gruden?
Dennis Erickson, the 49ers' coach, seems entirely too pleasant and too convivial. He got a pass with an explanation about dysfunctional ownership when he failed to win in Seattle, but here, Erickson, who made his reputation on offense, accepted a job with a built-in offensive coaching staff and system, a marriage that made no sense, and it clearly is not working. Perhaps he does not have the players his system requires, but neither does Parcells, and look at what he's doing with Dallas.
-- No. 2: Ownership. It must be committed, supportive and involved, but not overbearing. The owner must hire the right people and provide the resources to give them a chance to succeed. Hands-on owners like Jerry Jones (Dallas) and Mike Brown (Cincinnati) backed off this year to hire Parcells and Lewis. What are the odds on Al Davis backing off?
At least in the Raiders' case, Davis wants to win above all else, but the question is whether he still knows how. The Raiders' old formula does not work;
they have had three winning seasons in nine years since returning to Oakland. And three of Davis' four coaching hires since returning to the Bay Area have been stiffs.
With the 49ers, we have yet to see how they will handle an important offseason of player re-signings, but the hints have not been promising. In nearly five years since the ownership handover, there has been no progress on the promised new stadium, there has been nothing but unhappy budget talk from organization insiders, and there was a coaching change that has done nothing to help.
-- No. 3: Quarterback. Although the position has been downgraded through the years -- no NFL quarterback calls his own plays anymore -- a leader such as Steve McNair, Donovan McNabb or Tom Brady can hold a team together even when other things are going wrong.
Neither team can say with any certainty who its quarterback will be in 2004. It is highly unlikely the quarterbacks will be Rich Gannon and Jeff Garcia, but it is unclear who would take the job, and there is no evidence that either team has a long-term heir-apparent.
There is another key factor in today's NFL and, though it is not something fans want to hear, it is significant to the organizations involved - - the need for cash flow to pay big signing bonuses. The Raiders and 49ers both lack in this regard; they are both near the bottom of the league in revenue generated.
The Raiders' problems are self-inflicted because of their ongoing fight with the city and county, which has lasted longer than either World War. The 49ers' problems date to previous management's refusal to accept improvements at Candlestick Park because they were jealous of new stadiums in other cities.
What caused the problems is irrelevant now; these two franchises simply don't generate the revenue that new stadiums in even small markets such as Nashville and Charlotte do, and the owners either are unable or unwilling to dig into their own pockets.
Further, both teams play in divisions in which more enlightened ownership and better coaching will continue to make it difficult for them to win.
In the AFC West, Denver coach Mike Shanahan, whatever other problems he has endured since John Elway's retirement, still is one of the best coaches in the league and has a 14-4 edge on the Raiders. Kansas City always has been a well-run franchise.
And in the NFC West, Paul Allen's money and Mike Holmgren's coaching, particularly now that Holmgren has solidified the Seahawks at quarterback with Matt Hasselbeck, promise a long run of stability in Seattle. And even the Arizona Cardinals have a new stadium in the works.
The good news is that, in today's NFL, all of this can change quickly. The bad news is that positive change requires enlightened leadership, and there is no sign that either team has it.
Tale of the tape
How the 49ers and Raiders compare in various statistical categories in the NFL (league ranking in parentheses):.
OFFENSE
Yards per game
49ers 332.1 (13)
Raiders 309.0 (19)
NFL average 319.7
Points per game
49ers 20.7 (13)
Raiders 18.5 (23)
NFL average 21.0
Red-zone touchdown percentage
49ers 41.5 (27)
Raiders 48.1 (21)
NFL average 51.2
Third-down conversions
49ers 38.6 (12)
Raiders 33.8 (26)
NFL average 37.2.
DEFENSE
Yards per game
49ers 303.2 (9)
Raiders 358.4 (28)
NFL average 319.7
Points per game
49ers 19.2 (12)
Raiders 23.2 (24-tie)
NFL average 21.0
Red-zone touchdown percentage
49ers 54.5 (22)
Raiders 57.5 (26)
NFL average 51.2
Third-down
conversions
49ers 41.5 (26)
Raiders 36.9 (16)
NFL average 37.2.
PENALTIES
Yards
49ers 588 (6)
Raiders 937 (32)
NFL average 678.8
First downs by
penalties allowed
49ers 17 (10-tie)
Raiders 29 (32)
NFL average 18.9
Coaching, ownership, QBs come up short
By Ira Miller
All those who fret about the Raiders' intelligence or the 49ers' minor-league quarterback controversy are missing the big picture. The bad news about our two sad-my hero NFL franchises is not what they are doing this year, but what the future holds for them.
For the first time since the merger with the AFL in 1970, it appears the 49ers and Raiders will have losing records in the same season. More significantly, it is likely that neither of them will be a championship contender again anytime soon.
There are three important elements of a team in the NFL today -- coach, owner, quarterback -- and the future for both teams looks bleak in all three areas.
Be honest now: If you are a fan of either the 49ers or Raiders, which among these three elements possibly can give you hope as you look ahead?
Consider:
-- No. 1: Coach is paramount, by a wide margin. Coaches such as Bill Belichick, Bill Parcells and Marvin Lewis are difference-makers, and the willingness of owners to give up high draft choices, rich contracts and almost unlimited authority shows they understand that.
Either Bill Callahan knows he's going to be fired, suspects he's going to be fired, or simply wants to be fired to get out of this mess. Those are the only plausible explanations for his public toasting of his team. The Raiders have been doing dumb things for years; under Jon Gruden, they managed to overcome many of them. Why make a big deal, publicly, about it now? And how are the Raiders going to find the next Gruden?
Dennis Erickson, the 49ers' coach, seems entirely too pleasant and too convivial. He got a pass with an explanation about dysfunctional ownership when he failed to win in Seattle, but here, Erickson, who made his reputation on offense, accepted a job with a built-in offensive coaching staff and system, a marriage that made no sense, and it clearly is not working. Perhaps he does not have the players his system requires, but neither does Parcells, and look at what he's doing with Dallas.
-- No. 2: Ownership. It must be committed, supportive and involved, but not overbearing. The owner must hire the right people and provide the resources to give them a chance to succeed. Hands-on owners like Jerry Jones (Dallas) and Mike Brown (Cincinnati) backed off this year to hire Parcells and Lewis. What are the odds on Al Davis backing off?
At least in the Raiders' case, Davis wants to win above all else, but the question is whether he still knows how. The Raiders' old formula does not work;
they have had three winning seasons in nine years since returning to Oakland. And three of Davis' four coaching hires since returning to the Bay Area have been stiffs.
With the 49ers, we have yet to see how they will handle an important offseason of player re-signings, but the hints have not been promising. In nearly five years since the ownership handover, there has been no progress on the promised new stadium, there has been nothing but unhappy budget talk from organization insiders, and there was a coaching change that has done nothing to help.
-- No. 3: Quarterback. Although the position has been downgraded through the years -- no NFL quarterback calls his own plays anymore -- a leader such as Steve McNair, Donovan McNabb or Tom Brady can hold a team together even when other things are going wrong.
Neither team can say with any certainty who its quarterback will be in 2004. It is highly unlikely the quarterbacks will be Rich Gannon and Jeff Garcia, but it is unclear who would take the job, and there is no evidence that either team has a long-term heir-apparent.
There is another key factor in today's NFL and, though it is not something fans want to hear, it is significant to the organizations involved - - the need for cash flow to pay big signing bonuses. The Raiders and 49ers both lack in this regard; they are both near the bottom of the league in revenue generated.
The Raiders' problems are self-inflicted because of their ongoing fight with the city and county, which has lasted longer than either World War. The 49ers' problems date to previous management's refusal to accept improvements at Candlestick Park because they were jealous of new stadiums in other cities.
What caused the problems is irrelevant now; these two franchises simply don't generate the revenue that new stadiums in even small markets such as Nashville and Charlotte do, and the owners either are unable or unwilling to dig into their own pockets.
Further, both teams play in divisions in which more enlightened ownership and better coaching will continue to make it difficult for them to win.
In the AFC West, Denver coach Mike Shanahan, whatever other problems he has endured since John Elway's retirement, still is one of the best coaches in the league and has a 14-4 edge on the Raiders. Kansas City always has been a well-run franchise.
And in the NFC West, Paul Allen's money and Mike Holmgren's coaching, particularly now that Holmgren has solidified the Seahawks at quarterback with Matt Hasselbeck, promise a long run of stability in Seattle. And even the Arizona Cardinals have a new stadium in the works.
The good news is that, in today's NFL, all of this can change quickly. The bad news is that positive change requires enlightened leadership, and there is no sign that either team has it.
Tale of the tape
How the 49ers and Raiders compare in various statistical categories in the NFL (league ranking in parentheses):.
OFFENSE
Yards per game
49ers 332.1 (13)
Raiders 309.0 (19)
NFL average 319.7
Points per game
49ers 20.7 (13)
Raiders 18.5 (23)
NFL average 21.0
Red-zone touchdown percentage
49ers 41.5 (27)
Raiders 48.1 (21)
NFL average 51.2
Third-down conversions
49ers 38.6 (12)
Raiders 33.8 (26)
NFL average 37.2.
DEFENSE
Yards per game
49ers 303.2 (9)
Raiders 358.4 (28)
NFL average 319.7
Points per game
49ers 19.2 (12)
Raiders 23.2 (24-tie)
NFL average 21.0
Red-zone touchdown percentage
49ers 54.5 (22)
Raiders 57.5 (26)
NFL average 51.2
Third-down
conversions
49ers 41.5 (26)
Raiders 36.9 (16)
NFL average 37.2.
PENALTIES
Yards
49ers 588 (6)
Raiders 937 (32)
NFL average 678.8
First downs by
penalties allowed
49ers 17 (10-tie)
Raiders 29 (32)
NFL average 18.9